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This seems like a great argument to just never use the under-regulated betting markets.
I don’t like gambling. I worry about regulation driving it underground, though. I’d rather just see winnings taxed heavily, immediately and without exception or deduction. Invest it in social safety nets and it’s effectively forcing the winners to share their loot with the most vulnerable of the people they’re victimizing.
Gambling, like a lot of other things, is a high dopamine reward behavior which can be fun recreationally but also lead to serious addictions. Prohibition-only approaches to things like this tend to just lead to it becoming a widespread source of funds for organized crime, and so I tend to favor a public health perspective which involves legalization with heavy regulation and taxation + behavioral health support as a part of a robust safety net.
That having been said, this to me is a strong indication that there are some things it should not be legal to bet on.
But also I’m also pretty sure that this is illegal under the Commodities Exchange Act already? So this feels like either a loophole in emphatic need of closing, or, more likely, the law just no longer fucking mattering under this administration because too many of the enforcers are corrupt.
Wait… why the fuck is there a betting site where you can bet on wars starting. What in the immoral fuck is that even about?
Boiling frogs.
- Farmers want a way to sell their crops before harvest time to guarantee a certain price, so they’re protected by unpredictable swings in price. A market is set up for commodity futures, so a speculator can take that deal, and maybe make a lot of money if the price she sets with the farmer is well below the actual market value. This is seen as a good thing because the farmer gets to reduce their risk, while someone else gets the opportunity to make money by taking that risk on the farmer’s behalf.
- This system expands like a cancer, so professional investors are soon buying derivatives on all kinds of things. Sometimes this is arguably good for the world, but many times it’s just complex gambling, and it results in the housing-based financial collapse of 2007-08. Hedge funds and investment bankers manage to convince the regulators to let them keep the system as is, despite the crash.
- Wall street pushes to allow random people with no financial power, no training, no knowledge to also be able to get involved with derivatives, because having idiots on the other side of their bets is great for their bottom lines. It’s much easier to make money from some random person using an app than it is to make money off another professional investor.
- Some clever person manages to reskin a gambling app as if it were an investment app, and allows people to “buy derivatives contracts” on just about anything. Nobody honestly believes that this is anything other than gambling. But, the regulators are all compromised and toothless, so now you can gamble on any of the 4 horsemen: war, famine, death or disease.
I mean I actually like derivatives for hedging. I used to get 6 year contracts for electricity prices for my business. They saved my ass during covid/ Russia war. Prices climbed so fucking high that power contract became a financial asset. I like the fact that I can insure my stock portfolio with put contracts, I like that I can generate some income selling call contracts, and yes sometimes I even do short term speculation with options. If it’s good enough for Nancy Pelosi, it’s good enough for me! that being said it has gone way to far and there should be way more regulations and oversight because it is just a big casino and robin hood would let a child buy calls if it could access the phone.
You can bet on anything, man. It’s like Money Plane but with words writing.
My innocent european ass has never heard of money plane or polymarket before.
I don’t participate, but look at the odds on various things. It’s entertaining.
Creative interpretation of reality. Polymarket pretends it is not a betting platform, since betting on wars and similar shit is banned even in the US.
I refuse to participate in Biff Tannen’s world! I know I’m likely to be the minority, but I’m a stubborn SOAB!
I saw Coinbase was allowing buying/selling stocks 24/7
Commercialism has overtaken the internet. We’re in full corruption mode now. Without enforcing rules and regulations, this is where society ends up.
How do we make non-religious churches for decent people? Can we start that movement and move up from there?
How do we make non-religious churches for decent people? Can we start that movement and move up from there?
That’s already a thing.
Bhuddism and Zen Bhuddism are not religions, they are philosophies, a different way of viewing the world. They don’t require a church, a congregation or for you to believe anything. One reaches an understanding of cosmic unity by exploring the boundries of self. In fact, one of the first hurdles is accepting that you know very little which in turn births humble curiosity about the nature of existence. This movement has been growing for a while, might be time to look into it. Personally I found the best way to cut through the non essential periphery and get to the core of the ideas was through listening to Alan Watts.
Buddhism isn’t a religion?
There’s always someone on the other side of these bets. How is it that people keep betting on things like this when they know that insiders like this are the ones they’re sometimes betting against?
Come on, why did you use an AI tool to make his nose look like this.
Damn the price of cocaine is about to skyrocket.
And kalshi and he’s starting his own.
Gambling is haram for a reason. 🤷
(And yeah, I know much of it happens in or goes through some Gulf institutions, don’t worry I hate those hypocrites also).
1M is absolute chickenfeed to the level of corruption this family is dealing in.
wonder if they’d take this bet. not far off topic, buying insurance in america. allstate. i’ll bet you $100 if your house burns down we’ll buy you a new one
allstate; win
they win like 99.76% of the time. more; after digging through a few slop sites, dug up these values, roughly. no ai bs 145,000,000 houses , 344600 fires in 2023. bet $100/month x # of customers = $99.76 net revenue/month - (office buildings, advertising, wages etc.) per customer. check my sketchy math. please? having trouble believing this. they bend over backwards to not insure risky areas.
your odds of winning, having a fire and getting a new house. yeah not a win but
