It happened: strikes on Irans capital and nuclear facilities 🇮🇱. Here follows my analysis and the consequences for involved nearby countries. The main difference between this war and the Russia Ukraine war: Buffer states like Syria and Iraq are between the 2 countries at war, as Iran and Israel have no direct land borders. Furthermore it is insanely hard to to march Infantry masses across these flat desert buffer countries landscape without being spotted by satellites or drones. Syria and Iraq will sustain some damage, as they host pro Iran militia forces and some IS terror cells. This war will cost a lot of rocket-fuel, as the distance between Iran and Israel cities are bigger than those from Ukraine to Russia.
So I predict this will be mostly a war of long range strike- and special forces secret service commando assets in which Israel has an advantage in my assessment. Iran might enrich Uranium further, but only as a gesture, not really a useful outcome for them ☢.
🇸🇦 Saudi-Arabia will profit from this: Its sales of oil will grow, while Iran refinery capacity will be destroyed 🛢 . Russia might benefit indirectly from this with its oil sales to Asia (India and China) and a growing oil price. NATO countries will divert some long range strike assets and artillery munitions to Israel at first to strengthen it, as the US has already sent air defense assets purposed for Ukraine to the middle east theater. But with a defeated Iran Russia will loose power in the middle east and the Caspian-Sea. Azerbaijan and Afghanistan might profit from this as well, their borders with the isolationist mullah regime might become more brittle enabling more sanction avoiding smuggling and small export industry.
The US will benefit from this war in 2 ways: growing oil prices make their fracking industry more competitive and defense contractors like Ratheon stocks will grow 🗽 📈. Israel as a key to the region will strengthen.
🇹🇷 Turkey will stay neutral, they are amassing military forces and industry and neither Iran nor Israel have interest to mess things up with them and divert resources, though Turkey might use this to justify deeper operations inside Syria against PKK forces in the north-east.
Also I expect North Korea to send “secret” observers and assets into Iran as they have done in the Ukraine war, keep looking for them.
I guess long sequences of text nowadays get you flagged as a bot. But which sentence in my analysis makes you believe I am one in particular, I thought I just wrote about the countries in the region and effects?