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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 11th, 2023

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  • Opinion:

    Politically, the ayatollah can’t be toppled by foreseeable events, except if an Israeli strike should kill him. His successor in that case is unlikely to be milder. Netanyahu is also firmly in power due to special circumstances, and probably pretty safe from any Iranian attempts.

    Militarily, Iran has taken bigger losses, and has probably lost expensive and important parts of its nuclear programme - but not its stocks of highly enriched uranium, or its ability to launch ballistic missiles. From that perspective, if the Israeli strikes were meant to disarm Iran - they didn’t.

    Prognosis: they will trade more strikes and neither will achieve breakthrough success. Iran will lose more in the process.









  • How to make Saudia Arabia a normal society?

    • deny it income
    • deny it access to advanced technology
    • deny it legitimacy and cooperation

    Most importantly: stop using oil and natural gas sooner rather than later.

    Reasoning: the king stays in power by paying cops, security officials and prison guards - and paying people to shut up and tolerate the regime. Once the system runs low on money, things may change.

    Note: women in Europe made rapid progress at getting civil rights at a time when they were needed to run ammunition factories.

    It doesn’t have to be a world war - any development that makes it economically unavoidable that women start going to work outside their home, will change the role of women in society.