Turkye is moving against Russia though. They overthrew Assad, a close ally of Russia.

All while Russia made no move to help him, other than, of course, accepting him in Moscow.

And they have sold drones to Ukraine,

Selling weapons is profitable.

and trapped the Russian Black sea fleet.

That’s their obligation by Bosphorus straits’ treaties.

A collapse of Russian power in the Caucus leaves them as top dog in the area.

What collapse?

If you mean Azeri aggression against Artsakh and subsequent ethnic cleansing, and occupation of sovereign territories of Armenia, by that - then it’s no surprise your other conclusions are such.

There wasn’t any collapse, Russia exchanged Armenia for Azerbaijan as their ally, or so they think. They are leaving both countries, while hoping, apparently, for Aliyev to be their friend, because he’s a MGIMO graduate and lectured there, a member of that kind of ex-Soviet elite that considers itself aristocracy by now.

They have a lot to gain from a Russian loss in Ukraine.

They are the main proxy for the Russian economy to avoid sanctions. They have a lot more to gain from the war going on.

But in any case - there is, of course, a component of conflict between Russia and Turkey, of the “who’ll be on top” kind.

Also Turkish and Israeli money. These are well interconnected with Russian money, but I think that triad and Russia specifically should be treated as different things.

He doesn’t have to be Russian stooge to be evil, and to behave like one too

European universities started as church institutions doing 3 things - theology, philosophy and medicine. So no, he shouldn’t.

and falsely claimed he is “despised” by Ukrainians

Doesn’t really seem false by now. Zaluzhny was more popular and seemed to have some plan. Zelensky used the fact that said plan seemed a compromise worse than Ukraine can get at the time, to press Zaluzhny out. Ukraine really has spent some time postponing elections.

Also let’s remember that under Poroshenko Ukraine was having steady military preparation and buildup, Zelensky didn’t add much and Zelensky’s approach to conflict, if anyone remembers, was almost pro-Russian (as in “we just have to stop shooting and talk”, and yes, it doesn’t seem there was a better plan). Also for two weeks or more before the invasion it was in all the news that US and other governments think Russia is going to invade Ukraine.

Ukraine could have, you know, mobilized, taken this seriously.

I’m of an opinion that Zelensky initially was a Russian trojan horse for Ukraine, similarly to Pashinyan for Armenia. Except Pashinyan did his job well and Armenia is on its knees, while Zelensky kinda failed to do that because of existence of well-prepared (at that point in time) military and western support.

This may seem satanic, but since Russia is grinding to shit its own troops in Ukraine, suggesting that a government or a faction interested in their country becoming again a Russian puppet is grinding its troops intentionally too - doesn’t seem so stupid, I’ll explain why - the military is basically where most of patriotic and volunteer work went in Ukraine since 2014. It’s in some sense an institution such a government would try to damage as badly as possible.

Also notice how rumors about corruption in Ukraine’s military (not taking about the rest of the government, that part is not interesting, it’s an ex-Soviet state) have been building up slowly in correlation with that military becoming less professional and weary, because of slowly losing competent people as direct casualties, by disability or even burnout.

OK, that’s my impression.

That’s fine, people with dignity don’t have “leaders”. That’s about JD too.

And there are feedbacks in human societies, meaning that AfD and such would have much less popularity if, first, they had a less stinky alternative as “counter-system” parties, second, were not given publicity as a scarecrow, third, were not given media pressure.

It’s natural that in some conditions people run from the political mainstream and want something not associated with that swamp. It’s also natural that “black PR” is still PR, it puts AfD (or someone else) on a list of associations in one’s mind as being against that mainstream (no matter how fascist or populist). And it’s also natural that when you see media pressure, you want to push back.

People making decisions love to think in directions, but in fact thinking in categories and weights between them is better. Like with diversifying investments. If you invest a lot in the left-vs-right dynamic, no matter which side, the results are unpredictable, but you affect their possible magnitude, the more you invest, the more it is. So if someone puts a lot of pressure “to fight fascism”, they might cause a rebirth of fascism that wouldn’t have happened otherwise.

For the same reason I’m still not sure Trump is worse for Ukraine than someone else. You have to end the war at some point. If there’s no military way to restore Ukraine’s sovereignty over all of its territory, that may realistically be attempted, then that won’t happen anyway. They are not suggesting Ukraine to recognize annexation, but even if they were, the old world order is dying, and formal sovereignty in the UN might do little good in future. Some things they say suggest they may do for Ukraine a lot of what Ukrainians love to dream about in terms of restoration and armaments. Just - also controlling Russia by allowing it to sell its resources again. Probably with a deal worse for Russia than before, and the resulting prices might be less competitive than before.

Funny that this somehow was obvious for me since childhood. One of the perks of being autistic is that reading the same mainstream narrative texts you understand them differently.

The world loves those enforcing rules, because they have to be strong for that, and the world loves those breaking rules, because if today they are making a challenge, tomorrow they might become even stronger. Humans follow strength. So a new challenger of existing order is loved, a yesterday’s challenger who is still not a triumphant is hated.

Also the world wants to use those with integrity, but hang out with those without integrity. The former are reliable, and with the latter you can make any deal.

No conclusion other than a dagger is good for the one holding it and evil for the one lacking it when needed.

That’s a bit too much. That’s a country with Gallipoli battles being matter of national myth, right? And they use it the way of praising WWI Ottomans as a worthy enemy. That’d be Young Turks, that’d be the genocide of Armenians, Assyrians and Greeks in those very years.

Jail for a salute seems a bit unbalanced.

The EU as a structure is such that some piss drops like Orban can stall its reaction to events long enough to make it useless.

But! A new no-bullshit world confederation would be nice. With a combined military, of course.

Make US thirteen colonies again?