• DeathByBigSad@sh.itjust.works
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    1 day ago

    sliwa is polling at 7% in the latest poll

    Even if we assume he get doubled that like 15%

    The remainder split 3 way evenly is about 28%

    sliwa would have to win like 26% then have the 3 split evenly 24.6 + 24.6 + 24.6

    Extremely rare for that to even be possible.

    My bets are 60% chance Mamdani wins, 35% cuomo win, 4% adams win, 1% sliwa win.