There’s a dichotomy shaping up in this midterm election year. The national political landscape could hardly look worse for Trump and Republicans.
At the same time, the GOP is suddenly resurgent in the redistricting fight, getting significant wins this week in Virginia and Tennessee that could soften the blow they might have suffered without them.
Redistricting will net them 8 to 12 seats if all those hold up AND if all those districts vote R.
The average number of seats that an opposition party flips during midterms is 27. The Republicans currently have a 218-215 majority in the House.
So in an average year, these extra seats wouldn’t be enough to overcome the expected flip. That’s to say nothing of how much the Democrats have been over performing since 2024.