You are grossly underestimating the difficulty of dealing with a saturation attack, much less a sustained one. That sort of attack would likely almost certainly overwhelm the defensive resources of Guam with a couple CVBGs parked offshore.
How so? The only reason they’re so deadly in Ukraine is because they don’t have the resources to adequately defend the huge front and they can’t invest sufficiently to produce a scalable defense.
By the time NK is able to field enough drones for anything close to saturation, SK would have stockpiled more than enough defensive options.
Only 150 or so Gepards have been sent to Ukraine. SK can build their own mobile AAA and can likely have thousands by the time NK has hundreds of drones.
How many Standard + SEARAM + ESSM + CIWS rounds do you think a single base and two surface flotillas could expend in a sustained saturation attack like that? Not how many in the magazines - how many can be effectively expended over a given span of time. Also, take into the account that a part of this strategy typically includes salting the mix with much more modern and capable and fast ASMs/AGMs.
Saturation attacks are the strategy the Soviet (and now Russian) Navy centers their doctrine upon for a reason. And that reason is the USN CVBG. Cheap, numerous drones make that strategy a lot more effective.
Why would you use a missile against a Shahed? Only if you weren’t prepared for that threat and haven’t updated your tactics. The future will be automated drones and use the guns for close range.
As for CIWS, I bet a software update can let it be much more efficient with ammo against slow moving targets. Let’s say 10 per drone, which would mean a Phalanx would be able to take down about 150 per magazine.
You basically need to have an extra layer of air defense to the existing model. Missiles for fast moving threats, drones and guns for the slower threats.
And how many weapons do you think NK can even produce? They have to import all their electronics and hardly have the expertise to improve the technology significantly.
Where do you get 250k UAVs from? If Russia is targeting 5000 a month, what makes you think NK can even manage 500 a month? Which would take 40 years to amass 250k.
And hope to counter 250k UAVs? How about 10m UAVs? That’s how much more economic strength SK has in comparison. And that’s not even considering using a cheaper design as a counter.
You are grossly underestimating the difficulty of dealing with a saturation attack, much less a sustained one. That sort of attack would
likelyalmost certainly overwhelm the defensive resources of Guam with a couple CVBGs parked offshore.How so? The only reason they’re so deadly in Ukraine is because they don’t have the resources to adequately defend the huge front and they can’t invest sufficiently to produce a scalable defense.
By the time NK is able to field enough drones for anything close to saturation, SK would have stockpiled more than enough defensive options.
Only 150 or so Gepards have been sent to Ukraine. SK can build their own mobile AAA and can likely have thousands by the time NK has hundreds of drones.
How many Standard + SEARAM + ESSM + CIWS rounds do you think a single base and two surface flotillas could expend in a sustained saturation attack like that? Not how many in the magazines - how many can be effectively expended over a given span of time. Also, take into the account that a part of this strategy typically includes salting the mix with much more modern and capable and fast ASMs/AGMs.
Saturation attacks are the strategy the Soviet (and now Russian) Navy centers their doctrine upon for a reason. And that reason is the USN CVBG. Cheap, numerous drones make that strategy a lot more effective.
Why would you use a missile against a Shahed? Only if you weren’t prepared for that threat and haven’t updated your tactics. The future will be automated drones and use the guns for close range.
As for CIWS, I bet a software update can let it be much more efficient with ammo against slow moving targets. Let’s say 10 per drone, which would mean a Phalanx would be able to take down about 150 per magazine.
You basically need to have an extra layer of air defense to the existing model. Missiles for fast moving threats, drones and guns for the slower threats.
And how many weapons do you think NK can even produce? They have to import all their electronics and hardly have the expertise to improve the technology significantly.
Lmao dude what the fuck would you propose be used against a quarter million kamikaze UAVs?
And more importantly: the defenders need to get lucky every single time. The attackers only need to get lucky once.
Where do you get 250k UAVs from? If Russia is targeting 5000 a month, what makes you think NK can even manage 500 a month? Which would take 40 years to amass 250k.
And hope to counter 250k UAVs? How about 10m UAVs? That’s how much more economic strength SK has in comparison. And that’s not even considering using a cheaper design as a counter.