The change in Hungary’s government could help unlock €90bn for Ukraine and give a “new push” for it to join the European Union, the bloc’s expansion chief said Tuesday. Marta Kos, speaking on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank spring meetings, described the Hungarian election on Sunday – which saw long-ruling nationalist prime minister Viktor Orbán defeated – as a “big win for Europe.”
“I expect, personally, that this will have a positive effect on the accession process,” Kos said. She also said it would help unlock a major loan needed to prop up Ukraine’s budget. Orban had an effective veto on the funds, angering other EU leaders. He had tied the veto to a dispute with Ukraine over a damaged pipeline carrying Russian oil.
I’m not entirely clear how you add Ukraine in the middle of a war, particularly when a chunk of the country isn’t even under their control. If EU states wanted to openly war with Russia, they’d have just done it already. Admitting Ukraine mostly means opening the doors to a massive migrant wave, which nobody else in the EU (particularly neighboring Poland) seems to want.
Of course, sending them €90bn in Russian assets so the Ukrainian government can liquidate it and send it right back to EU arms dealers? That’s a no-brainer.
Ukraine would never join now, with an ongoing war.
But preparations can be made for when the right time comes.
Also, absolutely on the 90 billion.
Theoretically. But if Ukraine won’t negotiate without full return of territory (presumably even including Crimea, which is fully outside their political influence) and Russia won’t cede territory they’ve entrenched…
Feels like a North/South Korea situation is the best case scenario. They stop fighting but never really declare a peace.
But if Ukraine won’t negotiate without full return of territory (presumably even including Crimea, which is fully outside their political influence) and Russia won’t cede territory they’ve entrenched…
There is a big distinction between the primary fuel of the armies of Russia vs Ukraine.
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Russia is relying primarily on human meatwaves to take and hold ground.
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Ukraine’s army primarily runs on money. They buy western advanced weapons and invest in design and manufacturing of next-generation drone warfare (that has now become an income channel for Ukrainian arms exports to places like the Middle East). A year or two ago Ukraine shocked the world by holding positions for weeks and months with purely robotic guns. Just this week Ukraine offensively took and ground with only robots. Additional can be had with just more money.
Which one of these two do we think is going to run out first? The article we’re talking about is showing a $90B financial lifeline to Ukraine. I’m not seeing where Russia is going to get another 1,000,000 men to march into Ukrainian bombs and bullets to continue the war indefinitely.
Additionally Russia has largely exhausted its Soviet era stockpile of weapons, and the nation’s manufacturing capacity is not near enough to replace the losses as quickly as they are occurring. Yesterday’s Russian casualty numbers bear this out. 1 tank lost. 1010 men casualties.
Which one of these two do we think is going to run out first?
Setting aside that this is largely wartime propaganda horseshit - both militaries are relying on conscripts and mercenaries, both are heavily invested in cheap long-range drone artillery, both are saturated in “Victory is just around the corner” propaganda which has degraded support for their civilian leadership - Russia has 5x the population of Ukraine. If this really is just a Bodies-In-Spaces conflict, the Russians can drown Ukraine in their own blood over a long enough timeline. Ukrainians still need someone to fire those bombs and bullets, ideally before Kiev looks like Tehran.
But then nobody is “winning” this war in a material sense. Putin is shedding what political allies he has as the war drags on - Romania, Hungary, Turkiye, Syria. Zelensky is fully fucked the next time Ukrainians bother to have a domestic vote. Both of their economies have tanked, with further economic pressures coming from the conflict with Iran and the climate change threat.
The issue isn’t whether one runs out first. It’s how long the political leadership can drag this forward before someone pops them and brokers a settlement that ends the bleeding. Netanyahu is in a similar position in Israel, with endless war being the only excuse he has to stay in office. And domestic revolt might be what brings all these governments down long before the actual wars are ended.
both militaries are relying on conscripts and mercenaries,
Sure, but not in equal measures. Russia’s causalities has been acknowledge by both sides to be significantly higher than Ukraine’s, and that was when Russia still had its Soviet stockpile now largely exhausted. Ukraine is getting resupplied by the west. Russia is getting resupplied by…North Korea?
Zelensky is fully fucked the next time Ukrainians bother to have a domestic vote.
Ukraine is much more than simply Zelensky. Euromaidan had nothing to do with Zelensky. I’m not aware of any groundswell of support of the Ukrainian people for capitulation to being conquered by Russia. I would think this would still mean a pro-Ukrainian anti-Russian president after Zelensky is out of office.
Both of their economies have tanked, with further economic pressures coming from the conflict with Iran and the climate change threat.
I agree, but Ukraine still has access to global markets for sales, and its new defense industries appear to be the hot item for global customers. Russia, which traditionally had a pretty good income from its defense industries has been wiped out with a multiprong situation of lack of manufacturing capacity to support its domestic weapons consumption while still providing units for export to derive income, and the poor performance of Russian systems on the battlefield make for a bad sales argument. If anything, China is poised to take over the space of defense industry that runs counter to the traditional western suppliers.
The issue isn’t whether one runs out first. It’s how long the political leadership can drag this forward before someone pops them and brokers a settlement that ends the bleeding.
With Russia that leadership is one man, Putin. I would imagine as soon as he’s gone the will to fight the war evaporates with him. With Ukraine, I’m not aware of any pro-Russian candidate that show any sign of a significant lead that would suggest pro-Russians take power in Ukraine.
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