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Cake day: March 4th, 2025

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  • I didn’t bring up the Holocaust, especially not as a baseline. The situation is Gaza is horrible and needs to change. War crimes are likely happening and possibly crimes against humanity.

    The situation not remotely equal to the Holocaust though.

    The number of deaths per month in Gaza has been declining for over a year. Remember that gunmen with small arms managed to kill over 1000 people on one day October 7th in Israel. The IDF is heavily armed with advanced weaponry and could easily kill tens of thousands per day, if they wanted to.

    The humanitarian situation in Gaza is still bad, but has slowly been improving recently.

    Domestically the Netanyahu government is under growing pressure to end the war. Also in Gaza the protests against Hamas continued fighting is growing. The plans for relocating Gaza‘s population have gotten no traction or progress. International pressure, negotiations, and diplomacy are busy as well.

    All of this points to a better future, not an imminent Holocaust.

    Equivalences to the Holocaust are at best nonfactual incitement, at worst antisemitic Holocaust denial.

    The people of Gaza deserve a life in peace, liberty, and prosperity.




  • There are alliances, but for a world war the major powers should all be directly involved. The biggest global powers are the USA, China, EU, Russia. Only one of them is directly involved in a serious war. In Ukraine the USA and Europe have been avoiding a direct involvement for a decade now.

    The recent wars involving Israel only had minor involvement of western powers, mostly missile defense, and protection of shipping lanes. Israel has won decisively against Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria. The Houthis continue to be a nuisance and Hamas is restricted to small attacks. Some kind of ceasefire deal regarding Gaza becomes more likely by the day as both internal and external pressure mount on the Netanyahu government.

    Hezbollah is seriously weakened. Lebanon has a new stronger government. Iran will take a decade to rebuild their strength. The Houthis can go back to killing Yemenis. If Hamas can recover is unclear, but it won’t be fast either. Syria is busy with getting their own affairs in order and even signaling possible peace with Israel.

    The future for the Middle East looks almost promising I would say. Iran is weakened, cooperation and peace deals increase, several countries are tired of (civil) wars, Islamist Djihadism has lost wars and credibility.

    I would bet on Russia trying to conquer Georgia, Armenia, or some other former Soviet country after a ceasefire or peace deal in Ukraine. Gotta keep that war economy going. Even then direct Western or Chinese involvement is unlikely.

    Taiwan is a huge problem and a war would have huge global economic consequences. A huge air and naval war is certainly possible there involving China, Russia, and North Korea on one side against USA, NATO, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Taiwan, and other Asian countries. The ensuing worldwide economic crisis and distraction of major powers could then trigger wars elsewhere.

    A possible collapse, civil war, or break up of the USA could triggers lots of local wars where the US used be the dominant power. That includes all of Latin America, the pacific, but pretty much anywhere really.

    Africa could also fall into some major wars caused by resource access, climate change, proxy wars, overpopulation, etc. Once industrialization really kicks off in Africa, major wars become more likely and deadly. The Congo and central Africa has lots of unresolved issues dating back to the previous Congo wars.