In short:
A live-stream broadcast of China’s military parade has captured Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin discussing biotechnology’s potential to extend life.
An interpreter translating Mr Putin can be heard saying in Mandarin that human organ transplants could let “us live younger and younger, and perhaps even achieve immortality”.
Mr Xi responded that it may be possible for people to live to 150 years this century.
I honestly believe people could live to 150 within the next century and if organ transplants are part of it it will either be due to cloning or far better control of the immune system than we have now. I don’t expect those advances to be soon enough to help either of these guys, no matter how much money they have.
It’s a fun and easy thing to believe. Significantly harder to accomplish.
They’ve already benefited substantively from the last 70 years of health technology. And I wouldn’t be surprised of Xi, in particular, is enjoying some knock-on effects of being the head of state in a nation that’s on the cutting edge of medical research.
But there’s a huge difference between “living to 100” and “being a functional adult at age 100”. Xi’s already pushing the line in his 70s and should have been queuing up a successor two terms ago. Putin’s in it even worse, having trotted out Medeved and watched him flop in front of Parliament back in… what? 2008? Now he’s got the tiger by the tail as he coasts into his own golden years.
The fact that the US is floundering amidst its own techno-fascist gerentocracy should be a giant alarm bell for every other national government. You can’t just stack the fate of your country on whether Chucks Grassley and Schumer can maintain a pulse indefinitely. But I guess when its your turn in the big chair, its easy to think you’ll live forever.
I would expect nothing or much more than 150. You only live as long as the weakest links in your body. Solving one isn’t going to get ypu to 150. And if you solve enpugh to get to 150, you should live a lot longer.
I wasn’t setting an upper limit. There is good evidence we are closing in on some of the causes of the symptoms of aging, as well as gaining evidence that dealing with the symptoms may reduce the effects of aging. If we only have those basic tools in the next 100 years, I could see lifespans being pushed to 150 to 200 for the typical person. If we can also deal with the lesser regenerative capability of the brain, I could see people living for centuries. As you said in other comments, there are a lot of interconnected pieces, and just fixing one or some of them won’t be as useful as fixing all of them, which really takes transplants off the table as a general solution, but also means we may see limited increases in life span rather than getting past the tipping point of life extension research outpacing the gain it gives you, eg., extending lifespans more than one year per year.
There also is one thing I believe is still unknown. Why 115ish seems to be the upper limit. The ones who make it that long are often in relatively good health. But they still die (usually in thier sleep) anyway. With no real reason why. So we need to figure that out to break through the current line.